🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. However the odds had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," commented Dennis Kelleher. Several of other traders also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are growing concerned. Proposed legislation presented on recently seeks to ban public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."